INTO AFRICA February 2017 Edition: Africa’s Economic Path in 2017

LAGOS, Nigeria, Capital Markets in Africa: Welcome to the 2017’s first edition of INTO AFRICA, the publication with fresh insight into Africa’s emerging capital markets. In this edition, we bring you a selection of insights on Africa’s economic prospects in 2017. Please download by clicking: INTO AFRICA PUBLICATION: FEBRUARY 2017  EDITION. 

The collapse of oil prices has had far-reaching effects on African economies in 2016. For commodity exporters, the implications are glaring – weaker revenues have dampened growth and it will take time for those economies to adjust to the new normal. For instance, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to have decelerated to 1.5 percent in 2016, the lowest level in over two decades, according to the World Bank Group.

Africa is a continent with varied potentials and risks as well as less inter-dependence, hence growth rates will continue to vary widely across the continent. From a negative growth perspective, in 2016, Nigeria contracted by 1.7 percent (first full-year recession in 20 years), Chad tapered by 3.5 percent, Equatorial Guinea shrunk by 5.7 percent, Burundi trimmed by 0.5% and Swaziland deflated by 0.9 percent, the World Bank estimated.

Looking deeper, there are some countries living up to their promise within the continent, such as Cote d’Ivoire which expanded by 7.8 percent, Ethiopia which grew by 8.4 percent, Egypt which accelerated by 4.2 percent and Kenya which inflated by 5.9 percent. Amidst this positive growth, growth slowed to 0.4 percent in South Africa, 2.7 percent in the Democratic Republic of Congo and to 3.6 percent in Mozambique in 2016. Furthermore, growth in Morocco eased by 3 percentage points in 2016 to an estimated 1.5 percent, due largely to a drought-related contraction in the agricultural sector. While Tunisia’s grew from 0.8 percent to an estimated 2.0 percent reflecting rising investment and government spending.

Looking into the future, based on World Bank estimates, Africa is expected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2017, and rise above 4.6 percent by 2018, as policies in oil exporters continue to adjust to the new reality. However, the key downside risks to the continent’s prospects continue to be a weaker-than- expected rise in oil prices, as well as spillovers from the severe conflicts in several countries and an additional tightening of global financial conditions.

Please download by clicking: INTO AFRICA PUBLICATION: FEBRUARY 2017 EDITION.