The Editorial Team |

Kenya: Devolution and Infrastructure Boost Growth and Shared Prosperity

Devolution and increased investment in infrastructure are improving Kenya’s prospects for growth and shared prosperity, says a new World Bank Group report released today.The Kenya Public Expenditure Review (PER) for December 2014, Decision Time: Spend More or Spend Smart, says the country is making progress in the right direction, despite emerging fiscal pressure. It identifies the transformative impact of devolution and increased investment in infrastructure as key factors contributing to broad-based growth.Kenya’s economy has recovered from the…

Who Gains and Who Loses from Plunging Oil Prices?

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Judging by the futures market, where the price of oil for delivery in August 2015 is US$56 per barrel, there is little optimism about a recovery in oil prices. With cheap oil looking like it is here to stay, the latest Quarterly Economic Bulletin offers a breakdown by country of the potential regional consequences. Here are the highlights: Gulf Cooperation Council (Loss) oil and gas revenues in 2013 accounted for over half of the Gulf economies’ GDP and 75%…

Kenya gets $700 million IMF’s insurance finance

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The IMF Executive Board approved February 2 a financing package for Kenya of about $700 million that the East African country’s authorities plan to use as insurance against external shocks. This financing is precautionary, as Kenya plans not to draw on it unless the balance of payments comes under pressure. The financing package approved by the Board involves “blended access”—combined general and concessional resources comprising a $504.3 million Stand-By Arrangement and a $194 million arrangement…

Surge in dollar-debt leaves some African nations exposed

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A surge in foreign debt issuance by African nations has left some fragile economies exposed to the risk of billions of dollars in foreign exchange related losses if the U.S. currency strengthens abruptly, a think-tank said on Wednesday. Judith Tyson, senior researcher at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), said the notional losses in terms of higher interest and capital repayments could total $11 billion (£7 billion) in the event of a slump of 35 percent…

Nigeria now most-watched frontier market

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Nigeria has solidified its title as the most-watched frontier market in the latest WSJ Frontiers/FSG Frontier Market Sentiment Index as an increasing proportion of multinationals put the country on their watch list for potential future investment. Nigeria has held the top spot since the index was launched in June 2014 despite having endured a rough ride for the past few months. Followed by Vietnam, Kenya, and Argentina, which all rank among the top 20, Nigeria…

Nigeria: CBN Maintain or Tighten Policy?

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We expect policy to be held steady later today as the 100bp tightening in the MPR to 13% late-November 2014 is still yet to transmit its full effect throughout the economy. It is also unlikely for a tightening of policy prior to the election. However, there are various ways that the MPC could respond to current pressures, for example: • Tightening monetary policy further by around 100bp. • Raising Cash Reserve Ratio on Private Sector…

Republic of Gabon assigned Ba3 rating with stable outlook

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Moody’s had assigned first-time local and foreign-currency issuer ratings of Ba3 to the government of the Republic of Gabon and the outlook on the ratings is stable. The key credit strengths underpinning the Ba3 rating of the Republic of Gabon include (1) robust growth prospect, (2) strong government balance sheet, and (3) reduced external vulnerability afforded by its membership of the CFA franc zone. These are balanced by credit constraints that include (1) the high reliance…

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