Economy

NEW YORK (Capital Markets in Africa) – A reliable recession indicator has lost some of its power to predict. The chance of a recession in 2020 has Democratic campaign strategists feverish with anticipation—while trying not to show it—and President Trump even more amped up than usual. While Trump says he’s confident of the strength of the U.S. economy, his actions indicate otherwise. He’s demanding that the Federal Reserve cut its key rate target by at least a full…

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – The threat of an International Monetary Fund bailout, unthinkable a few years ago, may force South Africa’s government to push through the reforms it needs to rescue the economy. An expanded bailout for struggling power utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. and calls from other state companies for support have strained the nation’s budget, prompting business groups and analysts to warn the country could be pressed to ask the IMF to help…

HARARE (Capital Markets in Africa) – Zimbabwe’s government said it’s ready to settle with global lenders, sell assets and make the difficult spending decisions needed for financial recovery. But with opposition protests against plunging living standards scheduled in cities nationwide, it’s in a race against time. In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg News on Thursday, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube dismissed rapidly accelerating inflation as “wage compression” and warned the country will have to endure four more months…

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in AfricA) – South Africa has not asked the International Monetary Fund for assistance and does not need it, the lender’s resident representative in the country said. The IMF doesn’t see a balance-of-payments problem in South Africa, which means there’s no need for IMF support, Montfort Mlachila said Thursday at a conference hosted by the Bureau for Economic Research in Johannesburg. “To tell you the truth we, by we I mean the institution, much prefer the…

LONDON (Capital Markets in Africa) – The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China is nudging the world economy toward its first recession in a decade with investors demanding politicians and central bankers act fast to change course. In the U.S. alone, the recession risk is “much higher than it needs to be and much higher than it was two months ago,” Lawrence Summers, a former U.S. Treasury secretary and a White House economic adviser…

LONDON (Capital Markets in Africa) – The global bond market is sounding the alarm that things won’t be able to carry on much longer before a recession strikes. Germany’s yield curve is now at its flattest since the financial crisis — and yields across the world are slumping to fresh lows — in a cacophony of signs that investors are growing increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for the world economy. Central banks from New Zealand…

CAIRO (Capital Markets in Africa) – It’s the fastest-growing economy in the Middle East and a darling among emerging-market investors, yet poverty has climbed and companies are struggling. As Egypt concludes a three-year International Monetary Fund program designed to help pull the Arab world’s most populous nation out of economic turmoil, the indicators shown in the following charts are a vivid snapshot of the disparities. Inflation is finally slowing, the budget deficit is being whittled…