Economy

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – South Africa’s economy probably slowed in the last quarter of 2018, hit by weaker consumer spending and manufacturing as well as lower mining output. The economy should recover in 1Q, albeit slightly, as disruptions caused by electricity blackouts and a poor performance in the mining sector keep a lid on growth. We expect growth of 1.0% quarter-over-quarter (annualized) in 4Q18 compared with consensus of 1.2%. Our projection for 1Q19 is 1.6%…

LONDON (Capital Markets in Africa) – The narrowing inflation differential between South Africa and the U.S. signals long-term support for the rand and local-currency bonds, according to Standard Bank Group Ltd. Consumer-price increases in Africa’s most-industrialized economy slowed to 4 percent in January, in the lower half of the central bank’s 3 percent to 6 percent target range. That curbed the inflation differential with the U.S. to below its ten-year average. “This partly reflects the SARB’s success…

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Muhammadu Buhari will have little time to celebrate his resounding victory in Nigeria’s presidential election before facing the multitude of problems dogging Africa’s biggest oil producer. The legal challenge to last weekend’s vote promised by his main rival, Atiku Abubakar, is the least of his worries. Add to that a listless economy, Islamist State attacks wreaking havoc in the northeast and an explosive cocktail of worsening poverty and rapid population growth. The 76-year-old former general came to…

DARKA (Capital Markets in Africa) – Senegalese President Macky Sall won a decisive majority in elections after overseeing years of high economic growth and the construction of modern infrastructure, extending his term of office by five years. Sall, a 57-year-old former geological engineer, won 58 percent of the votes, well above the 50 percent needed to avoid a second round, according to results announced by the National Vote Counting Commission on Thursday. The outcome gives Sall a…

SOMALI (Capital Markets in Africa) – The International Monetary Fund projects Somalia’s economy will expand by 3.5 percent this year and next year, compared with a forecast of 3.1 percent in 2018, as the Horn of Africa nation implements an economic program monitored by the lender. “Somalia’s economy is recovering, but further efforts are needed to secure economic resilience and reduce poverty,” the Washington-based lender said Wednesday in an emailed statement. “Since 2017, growth has rebounded, inflation has…