Economy | - Part 78

Commodity Prices Expected to Remain Weak in 2015 – World bank Forecast

WASHINGTON, USA (Capital Markets in Africa) –The World Bank is nudging up its 2015 forecast for crude oil prices from $53 in April to $57 per barrel after oil prices rose 17 percent in the Apr-Jun quarter, according to the Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, a quarterly update on the state of the international commodity markets. The Bank reports that energy prices rose 12 percent in the quarter, with the surge in oil offset by declines…

Angolan Economy – An uphill struggle in 2015 says Chief Economist, Tiago Dionisio

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Tiago Dionisio, Chief Economist with Eaglestone Securities Lower oil prices hit 2014 GDP growth and fiscal accounts Angola is Sub-Saharan Africa’s second largest oil producer after Nigeria and its economy remains highly dependent on the oil sector. Official figures show that the oil sector accounted for nearly 37% of the country’s GDP, 98% of its total exports and more than two-thirds of government revenues in 2014. As a result, it is…

Global slow down will boost Africa’s hopes of achieving development goals

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ADDIS ABABA (Capital Markets in Africa):- Africa is likely to benefit from weak global growth by attracting more investment that will drive its development, experts said at a financing conference in Ethiopia on Wednesday. Investors have been pouring money into Africa in recent years, buoyed by its strong economic growth and improved governance amid slow growth in Europe, China and the United States. “As the global economy continues to be sluggish and large emerging markets slow…

Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth slows: A look at Nigeria and Kenya by Renaissance Capital

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Lagos, Nigeria (Capital Markets in Africa) — Low commodity prices, soft global demand and domestic structural constraints have conspired to slow growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s oil exporting and importing countries alike. We lower our 2015 growth forecast for Kenya to 5.2% (vs 6.0% previously), and highlight downside risks to Nigeria’s. Kenya: Quicker growth is deferred We expect the (investment-driven) acceleration in Kenya’s growth to be deferred, partly due to tighter monetary policy. Although growth quickened in 1Q15…

In Tunisia, Second Deadly Attack on Tourists in Four Months Is Credit Negative

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Tunis, Tunisia (Capital Markets in Africa) — Last Friday, a Tunisian student attacked foreign tourists at a beach resort in Sousse, Tunisia, killing at least 38. It was the second large-scale attack on foreign tourists in the country in just four months, following two Tunisian gunmen killing 22 people at a museum in Tunis in March. Although Tunisia’s (Ba3 stable) successful democratic transition between 2011 and 2014 and our outlook for its economic recovery prompted…

Egypt’s Draft Budget Hints at Slower Fiscal Consolidation, a Credit Negative

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Cairo, Egypt (Capital Markets in Africa) — Last Thursday, Egypt’s (B3 stable) Ministry of Finance announced the draft budget for the 2016 fiscal year that starts 1 July. The draft budget, which the cabinet approved and awaits sign-off from President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, projects a fiscal deficit of 9.9% of GDP, down from the revised budget deficit of 10.8% during the current fiscal year. However, the budget hints at a slower fiscal consolidation pace than…

Zambia’s Midyear Budget Deficit Is Double Original Projection, a Credit Negative

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Lusaka, Zambia (Capital Markets in Africa) — On 16 June, Zambia (B1 negative) Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda released the midyear budget update, which revealed a deficit of ZMW20 billion (roughly $2.7 billion, or around 10% of GDP) for the first six months of this year, more than double the original projection. He also sought parliamentary approval to nearly double the external borrowing limit to access international capital markets to plug the deficit. The credit-negative larger-than-expected…

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