The Markets

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – The gold rally fueled by the U.S.-China trade war is unleashing a growing wave of illegal miners who are increasingly pushing into fragile environments that range from Latin America’s Amazon to South Africa. Bullion has surged 18% over three months to the highest in six years. While that’s good news for mining companies, it’s spurring a burst of illegal prospecting that has helped fuel drug trafficking and organized crime within some of the…

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – Discovery Ltd. extended its slump in Johannesburg trading, dropping the most since December 2015, as some investors fretted over the outlook for the medical insurance administrator under South African plans to shake up the country’s health insurance system. Discovery fell as much as 11% Monday before paring the decline to 5% as of 1:47 p.m. At its lows for the session, Discovery was heading for its worst two-day plunge on record….

JOHANNESBURG (Capital Markets in Africa) – Moody’s Investors Service hasn’t said it, but investors already think it: South Africa’s credit is junk. The company, which rates South Africa’s debt Baa3, the lowest investment level, is due to review its assessment in November. Given Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd.’s financial woes and its implications for government debt, the market is pricing in a downgrade. These three charts show how traders view the country’s fiscal outlook: The premium…

KINSHASA (Capital Markets in Africa) – Glencore Plc is planning to halt production at one of the world’s biggest cobalt mines after prices for the battery metal collapsed and costs at the project increased, according to a person familiar with the situation. The announcement that Glencore will close its Mutanda mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to come as the company lays out an overhaul of its key African copper and cobalt business…

LUSAKA (Capital Markets in Africa) – Currency weakness and tepid economic growth have weighed on business activity in Zambia and South Africa. Purchasing Managers’ Indexes published Monday and Tuesday showed business conditions deteriorated in Zambia and South Africa in July. In Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Uganda and Mozambique the indexes remained above the neutral mark of 50, where they’ve been for most of the past two years, indicating improvement. While Zambia’s July PMI reading is lower…

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Nigerian trade consultant Bamidele Ayemibo says it’s easier to sell his bean cake snacks to China than to neighboring Benin. Trading with any of the other members of the Economic Community of West African States requires him to find expensive money changers to convert local currencies, adding to costs that are already high due to dilapidated roads. He prefers selling to customers who hold hard currencies in London or…

LAGOS (Capital Markets in Africa) – Investors looking to escape $15 trillion of negative yielding debt may want to err on the side of caution before buying a dip in emerging-market currencies. In the wake of an escalating trade war and China’s decision to weaken the yuan on Monday, the risk-adjusted carry on five major crosses in the developing world has slumped to the lowest since early January, falling below this year’s average. The gauge is a measure…