How Protesters Ended Sudan Leader’s 30-Year Rule: QuickTake

KHARTOUM (Capital Markets in Africa) – Omar al-Bashir led a military coup that kicked off Sudan’s Islamic revolution in 1989. Now, after three decades in charge, he has been pushed out after a wave of nationwide protests over soaring prices for food, medicine, fuel and transport. The 75-year-old ruler, who was indicted in 2009 by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes and genocide in the country’s Darfur region, had insisted he would only leave office if he lost elections in 2020. Instead, the army has stepped in to hasten the transition.

What sparked the protests?
The cost of living has skyrocketed — inflation topped 60 percent in 2018 — after repeated currency devaluations and the scrapping of government subsidies. The al-Bashir government had taken those policy steps to satisfy recommendations from the International Monetary Fund for improving Sudan’s economy. Shortages of gasoline and banknotes further stoked the outrage, and there were widespread complaints about government corruption, inefficiency and intolerance of dissent.

Who will succeed al-Bashir?
For now the country is being led by a military council, headed by Defense Minister Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf, who says the transition to a new government will take two years. No future heir apparent has been identified. Some protesters have called al-Bashir’s ouster a coup d’etat and vowed to keep up the pressureon the military to make way for civilian rule. They have continued a sit-in outside army headquarters in the capital, Khartoum, in spite of a 10 p.m. to 4 a.m. curfew.

Why is the world taking notice?
The removal of al-Bashir marks the second time this month that a northern African autocrat has been brought down by popular protests, following the resignation of Algerian leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika. The back-to-back events are prompting comparisons to the Arab Spring protests of 2011 that forced out entrenched leaders in Tunisia and Egypt. It’s also possible al-Bashir could be extradited to the Hague to stand trial at the ICC for allegedly directing a campaign of mass killing and rape against civilians in Sudan’s Darfur region between 2003 and 2008. Ibn Auf is also tainted by Darfur: He was sanctionedby the U.S. government in 2007 in relation to the brutal conflict.

How did things get so bad in Sudan?
Sudan was engulfed in civil war for two decades before a 2005 peace deal that partitioned the country six years later. South Sudan assumed control over three-quarters of the oil fields, stripping the north of a large chunk of its revenue and foreign exchange. Lower crude prices have further dented income from what’s left of Sudan’s output. The government has tried to diversify the economy by encouraging mining, but it remains a fledgling industry, and the bulk of the country’s 40 million people depend on subsistence agriculture. Sudan is among the world’s poorest nations, ranking 167th out of 189 countries on the UN Development Program’s human development index.

How serious were the protests?
The scale of the unrest that began Dec. 19 was unprecedented during al-Bashir’s rule. It intensified in early April after a demonstration called by an outlawed group of doctors, engineers and academics known as the Sudanese Professionals Association drew thousands of protesters to surround the military headquarters. Rights group Amnesty International says more than 2,600 people have been arrested in the uprising and scores have died in clashes with security forces.

What’s the economic impact?
Beyond humanitarian concerns, there are trade issues involved. Prior to the south’s succession, Sudan ranked as sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest oil exporter, and it still produced 72,000 barrels of oil a day in 2017. It also serves as a conduit for all crude produced in the south. Sudan’s government has signed an accord with Russia’s Rosneft Oil Co. and Rosgeologiya OAO to build a 200,000-barrel-a-day refinery at Port Sudan on the Red Sea. The country is also the world’s biggest exporter of gum arabic, a sap that’s extracted from acacia trees and used in sodas and pharmaceuticals.

Will anyone help Sudan?
Gulf Arab nations are most likely to look favorably on requests for assistance. Sudan has strengthened its relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the past four years, contributing aircraft and thousands of troops to their battle against rebels in Yemen. In October 2017, the U.S. lifted economic sanctions it had imposed on Sudan two decades earlier for its alleged sponsorship of terrorism. But an IMF bailout is unlikely, since Sudan’s debt to the Washington-based lender is already in arrears.

Source: Bloomberg Business News