Ivorian Leader Faces Revived Opposition in Third-Term Quest

ABIDJAN (Capital Markets in Africa) — Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara’s decision to run for a third term as the leader of the world’s top cocoa producer is galvanizing a divided opposition, marring his re-election odds.

Ouattara rescinded his decision not to seek a third term on Thursday, saying he accepted the nomination of the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace to run as its candidate in an Oct. 31 vote. Ouattara said in March he wanted Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly to succeed him, but his sudden death of heart problems in July upended that plan.

The 78-year-old leader in a national address said he had reconsidered his position because of “the challenges we face to maintain peace” and “the risk that all the gains, after so much effort and sacrifice by the entire population, could be compromised.”

Ouattara’s about-turn complicates the legacy of a leader that has drawn widespread praise for restoring stability and attracting billions of dollars in foreign investment for highways, bridges, and other infrastructure projects. That’s helped spur average annual economic growth of least 7% since 2012. Even so, some Ivorians complain that inequality has increased and that so-called northerners — people who, like Ouattara, hail from the north of the country — are now dominating the business.

The bid “presents an opportunity for the opposition to build momentum ahead of the polls,” according to New York-based Eurasia Group. “It hands them a convincing anti-incumbent message and could turn voters frustrated with the political establishment away from the ruling party.”

‘Political Dominance’
“The ruling party retains considerable advantages owing to its political dominance, superior grassroots campaigning, and access to patronage,” the risk consultancy said in a note.

Ouattara will face former President Henri Konan Bedie, 86, who withdrew his party from the ruling coalition in 2018 after disagreeing over which group should field a candidate for the vote. Another key ally, former rebel leader Guillaume Soro, has also quit in order to mount an independent campaign. His movement captivated young people tired of the generation of leaders that has dominated politics since the 1990s.

Soro’s troops helped Ouattara assume the presidency in 2011 after a five-month conflict triggered by then-President Laurent Gbagbo’s refusal to concede defeat in 2010 elections. That brief civil war was the country’s deadliest and left the economy in tatters.

Soro and Bedie have said they will back each other if the vote goes to a second round, and they’ve also held talks with Gbagbo, who lives in Belgium after being acquitted by the International Criminal Court of charges linked to the post-electoral conflict.

‘Easy Target’
Assoa Adou, an official for Gbagbo’s party, said Saturday that Ouattara’s bid is illegal, echoing earlier comments from Soro and Bedie.

Still, Gbagbo and Soro are politically hamstrung. An Ivorian court handed Gbagbo a 20-year prison sentence last year after finding him guilty of looting a local branch of the Central Bank of the West African States during the crisis. Soro lives in France since he was charged with planning a 2017 coup. He has denied the allegations.

Ouattara victory isn’t assured despite his record in turning the economy around and maintaining security, said Eric Humphery-Smith, Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.

“The ruling RHDP party will still be concerned about their electoral appeal now that they are going it alone,” he said in emailed comments.

Source: Bloomberg Business News