Peril Mounts for Johnson as Police Probe Lockdown Parties

Johnson is battling for his political survival over a slew of reports about events in his Downing Street office, which were held at a time when social gatherings were banned under restrictions meant to curb the spread of coronavirus. 

Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick announced an inquiry on Tuesday, hours after Johnson’s office confirmed staff had gathered in Downing Street to celebrate his birthday during the first lockdown in 2020. That was the latest revelation in what’s been dubbed the “partygate” scandal.

Speaking in the House of Commons, Johnson told lawmakers he welcomes the police probe, which he said “will help give the public the clarity it needs and help to draw a line under matters.” Earlier, his spokesman Max Blain told reporters the prime minister does not think he broke the law. 

The development has potentially seismic ramifications for Johnson, who was already facing calls to resign from some members of Parliament in his ruling Conservative Party. Many more have said they would wait for the findings of the government’s own probe into the events, which Johnson commissioned after a furious backlash from lawmakers and the wider public.

That was expected to be published as soon as this week, but the police inquiry complicates matters. Blain said the government probe, conducted by senior civil servant Sue Gray, will continue to look at the events in Downing Street that are not subject to the police inquiry. He said he’s not aware of which events the police have decided to probe.

Given a police inquiry is not expected to conclude imminently, Johnson has been spared a potentially damaging official verdict on the alleged parties for now. But while one potential hurdle may be delayed, the police’s involvement raises the stakes.

The most immediate threat facing Johnson is the reaction of his own party. He would face a vote on his leadership if 54 Tory MPs, or 15% of the total, submit letters to a key committee calling for him to step down.

‘White Hot Anger’
“It’s looking increasingly gloomy and increasingly difficult, and I think anyone who thinks to the contrary is deluding themselves,” Conservative lawmaker Simon Hoare told Bloomberg Radio.

Hoare said that among his constituents, there’s “white hot anger, there is bewilderment, and there is huge disappointment.”

Johnson has so far managed to keep the number of rebels below the threshold. But months of turmoil, including his botched handling of an ethics probe and a key parliamentary election loss, have damaged his standing. Support for the Tories has plummeted in recent opinion polls.

A police probe adds to his personal humiliation. Johnson has already been forced to apologize to Queen Elizabeth II after it emerged his staff held two parties on the eve of her husband Prince Philip’s funeral last year. He also faced ridicule after he confirmed he attended a drinks reception in his Downing Street garden that he has insisted he thought was a “work” event.

“Potential criminality has been found in Downing Street,” opposition Labour Party deputy leader Angela Rayner said in Parliament. “What a truly damning reflection on our nation’s very highest office.”

Not Resigning
Johnson, who has said via his office he would not resign in the event of a confidence vote, was aware of the police probe before Tuesday’s meeting of his cabinet but the issue was not discussed, according to Blain. How ministers respond is likely to have a direct influence on what happens next.

If a senior figure resigns, indicating they have lost confidence in Johnson’s leadership, that would likely prompt more Tory MPs to demand the prime minister step down.

It’s not a given that Johnson would lose a confidence vote. If he secures the backing of 180 MPs, or more than half of the 359 in the House of Commons, he would be immune from another vote for a year. Any abstentions would affect that calculation.

There’s recent precedent. The last Conservative leader to face a no-confidence vote was Theresa May in December 2018, at the height of parliamentary wrangling over Brexit. She won by 200 votes to 117, though she was gone from Downing Street months later with her party paralyzed by infighting.

If Johnson were to lose, Conservative MPs will hold a leadership contest he’s excluded from. Senior cabinet figures Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunakand Foreign Secretary Liz Truss are expected to be the front-runners. 

Source: Bloomberg Business News