South African Ruling Party Faces Key Test in Municipal Vote

Voting got under way at 7 a.m. local time and is scheduled to end at 9 p.m.

A poll released on Sunday by broadcaster eNCA and research company Ipsos South Africa shows the ANC garnering 43.4% of the vote overall, that would be it’s lowest share since it took power in the nation’s first multiracial elections in 1994, and down from 54% in 2016. The main opposition Democratic Alliance is expected to win backing of 24%, down from 26.9%, while the Economic Freedom Fighters looks likely to be the biggest winner with 14.8%, up from 8.2%, the survey showed.

A separate poll by news service Media24 showed the ANC garnering from 52% to 56% of the vote, the DA 19% to 23%, and the EFF 10% to 14%.

“It is impossible to predict with certainty the outcome of these rather messy and unique elections,” Ipsos said in a statement, citing factors including the coronavirus pandemic and the slow pace of vaccinations, which have curbed campaigning by political parties.

Besides the dire state of most towns, the ANC’s support could be eroded by recent power outages and record-high unemployment. The ANC is banking on Ramaphosa, 68, who is much more popular than his party and has been the public face of its campaign, to convince the electorate to give it another chance.

Support for the DA has been eroded by infighting and the fact that it has a predominantly White senior leadership, while 80% of the population is Black. Led by Julius Malema, a former ANC youth leader, the EFF advocates the seizure of land, banks and mines, policies that have resonated with poor, unemployed youths in urban townships.  

About 10,000 soldiers have been deployed to potential hot spots to safeguard against disruptions to the vote, three months after an outbreak of civil unrest in the country left at least 354 people dead. At least 10 councilor candidates have died in suspected political killings in the run-up to the elections.

In addition to contesting seats against opposition parties, many ANC candidates will face off against their former colleagues who’ve left the party’s ranks and are standing as independents. Of the 95,247 contenders, 1,546 are going it alone, a 42% increase from 2016, according to the Independent Electoral Commission.

Under the constitution, final results must be released within seven days, although the count has previously taken three or four. Turnout in municipal elections is typically far lower than in national ones.