Outlook

Nigerian current-account deficit is 0.1% GDP in Q4 2014

The CBN’s External Sector Development Report for Q4 2014 shows a modest current-account deficit equivalent to 0.1% of GDP. This was to be expected, given that the international oil price fell by about US$25/b over the quarter in question. The report also revised earlier data, notably for Q2 for which a surplus representing 1.1% of GDP was transformed into a 0.4% deficit. The deterioration predates the latest slide in the oil price and can be traced to…

Africa: End of the Commodity Super-Cycle Weighs on Growth

Posted on by The Editorial Team

Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth will slow in 2015 to 4.0 percent from 4.5 percent in 2014, according to World Bank projections released today. This downturn largely reflects the fall in the prices of oil and other commodities, notes Africa’s Pulse, a twice-yearly World Bank Group analysis of the issues shaping Africa’s economic prospects released today at the start of the World Bank Group’s 2015 Spring Meetings, which will draw the world’s finance and development ministers to Washington,…

Moody’s downgrades Ghana’s sovereign rating to B3; outlook negative

Posted on by The Editorial Team

Moody’s Investors Service has today downgraded Ghana’s issuer and senior unsecured rating by one notch to B3 from B2. The outlook on the rating is negative. The key drivers of today’s rating action are the following: 1) Deteriorating debt dynamics as reflected by an increasing debt burden due to large fiscal imbalances and a sharp weakening of the country’s national currency, combined with reduced debt affordability stemming from a high cost of funding in the…

Moody’s: Namibia’s strong growth record and sound public finances support stable Baa3 rating

Posted on by The Editorial Team

Namibia’s (Baa3 stable) small but diversified economy, strong growth record and responsible government budget management underpin its rating, Moody’s Investors Service says today in its annual Credit Analysis for the country. Namibia’s abundant natural resources, infrastructure investment and developments in the mining sector support its favourable near-term growth prospects, while government deficits have been moderate. “The government has a track record of prudent debt management and has adequate debt recording systems,” says Kristin Lindow, Senior…

Nigerian Economy and Financial Market: After Elections… What Next?

Posted on by The Editorial Team

After Elections …What Next? Nigeria’s macroeconomic scene in recent times has been laden with issues surrounding the domestic polity in anticipation of the upcoming elections in March and April. Election campaigns are getting more intense with no one actually sure of which of the two major political parties will carry the day. Falling oil prices still continues to pressure the fiscal stability of government whilst Naira stability is continually tensed on the back of falling external…

Nigeria: Weakening Economic Outlook Driven by Low Oil Prices

Posted on by The Editorial Team

Introduction The recent sharp drop in oil prices is taking a heavy toll on Nigeria, the sixth largest net exporter of oil in the world. In 2015, economic activity is projected to slow and the fiscal and current accounts are expected to deteriorate. Although Nigeria has some room to live with higher fiscal and current account deficits in the short term, the economy has limited fiscal and external buffers (low levels of the Excess Crude…

Lower oil prices to strain net exporters, offer respite to importers

Posted on by The Editorial Team

Lower oil prices will reverse the financial performance of oil exporters and importers in 2015, with exporters’ public finances coming under renewed pressure and importers given some help in reducing their deficits, Moody’s Investors Service says in a report published today. Moody’s report, entitled “Global Oil Price Shock: Challenges for Oil-Exporting Sovereigns, Breathing Space for Importers” is available on www.moodys.com. The impact of cheaper energy means oil exporters face worsening fiscal and external balances, with some…

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