Why Ireland’s Border Is Brexit’s Intractable Puzzle: QuickTake

LONDON (Capital Markets in Africa) – The frontier between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland remains the essential conundrum of Brexit. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is determined to leave the European Union by Oct. 31, with or without a negotiated transition deal. But any departure must take into account the historically fraught Irish border, which is set to become the only land crossing between the EU and the U.K. after Brexit. A controversial compromise to keep the boundary invisible sank former Prime Minister Theresa May. That left her successor to find a solution more palatable to British lawmakers that leaders in Brussels and Dublin can also support.

Why is the Irish border such a problem?
Throughout the Brexit negotiations, the EU has insisted that only goods that meet its rigorous customs and regulatory standards should enter the bloc once the U.K. exits. At the same time, both sides agree that the frontier should remain invisible so that people and goods can easily cross back and forth. A return to checkpoints and watchtowers would bring back bad memories, more than 20 years after a peace agreement largely ended decades of violence, and could endanger the region’s fragile peace.

How might Johnson approach this?
May’s failed plan postponed a reckoning over the Irish border by potentially effectively keeping the entire U.K., including Northern Ireland, in Europe’s customs union. Committed Brexit backers rejected May’s approach, known as the backstop because it kept Britain too closely tied to the EU. Speculation is growing that the new prime minister could try to break the impasse by binding just Northern Ireland to the EU and effectively shifting the border to the Irish Sea. That would subject trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K. to checks unless a bespoke trade deal is hammered out.

What exactly is Johnson proposing?
British negotiators have raised the idea of creating an all-Irish food zone as a way of avoiding checks along the frontier for agricultural products. That would require the north and south to maintain identical rules on food even as the rest of the U.K. moves away from those standards. But such a compromise would cover only about 30% of the 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) in cross-border trade each year, and Johnson has yet to spell out in detail how checks on other goods might be avoided. In the past, he has floated potential solutions such as high-tech tracking and “trusted trader” programs that pre-certify qualified exporters.

What’s the response from Europe?
Ireland and the EU say they are open to a Northern Ireland-only arrangement but argue that Johnson’s proposals still fall far short of what’s needed to keep trade flowing while protecting the integrity of the common market. They also aren’t convinced that technological solutions exist yet and argue that inspections close to the border would still be needed. The Irish government insists that promises from Johnson aren’t enough, and is demanding a legally binding guarantee that checks won’t be re-introduced.

How is Northern Ireland reacting?
The fiercely pro-British Democratic Unionist Party has always vowed to resist any solution that separates Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K. A deal that resulted in checks at ports on good traveling between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland would normally be a non-starter for the party, which controls ten votes in Parliament and whose support is considered essential to unlock wider backing for a deal. But tentative signs of softening in the DUP’s position have emerged as it faces the prospect of a potentially far more damaging “no-deal” Brexit that sees the U.K. tumble out of the EU with no transition arrangements at all.

A former customs guard hut directly situated on the north south Irish border stands disused.

What would happen in a no-deal Brexit?
Johnson has said that the U.K. won’t erect border posts, effectively daring Ireland and the EU to set up customs infrastructure on the frontier if they insist on checks. No deal would mean tariffs — trade between the U.K. and the EU would be covered by basic World Trade Organization rules, including a raft of duties. No one knows how it would work. Ireland is in talks with the EU on how tariffs would be collected and what form checks on goods would take.

Why is this such a headache for Ireland?
The Irish face a dilemma in the event of a no-deal Brexit: Either they agree to reinstate the border or run the risk of being booted out of the European single market for failing to protect its flank. That’s because, without border checks, Northern Ireland could be used as a so-called back door into the EU. Brazilian beef, for example, could be shipped to Belfast, moved across the open border and sent seamlessly on to the rest of the EU. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkarhas described some form of checks as the “price we have to pay” to protect continued Irish membership in the single market.

What is the border like now?
It meanders through the countryside for some 310 miles (500 kilometers), dividing rivers, fields and even some houses; a change in road signs and the accepted currency is pretty much the only indication that a person has moved from one country to another. The island was partitioned in 1921, a division cemented by a peace agreement between the British government and Irish rebels seeking independence. As part of the deal, Northern Ireland, where the population is majority Protestant, remained part of the U.K. with England, Scotland and Wales. The mostly Catholic southern part of the island became the Irish Free State, before formally becoming a republic in 1949.

Could a no-deal Brexit hasten a united Ireland?
It’s unlikely anytime soon. Nearly a century after partition, a majority in Northern Ireland want to remain part of the U.K. Still, the fact that the possibility is being openly discussed again is a testament to the forces unleashed by Brexit. Under a provision of the 1998 Good Friday peace accord, a so-called border poll on Irish unification could only take place if the U.K. government considers such a referendum would likely be passed. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has warned that a no-deal Brexit could eventually stir sentiment for a united Ireland — an analysis rejected by unionist parties in the region.

What about a possible return of violence?
Customs and security checks would likely hurt the economy on both sides of the border, and perhaps offer a daily reminder of British rule of Northern Ireland. While the province has been at peace for almost two decades, tension has increased after the explosion of a car bomb in January and the killing of a journalist during riots in Derry, also known as Londonderry, in April.

Source: Bloomberg Business News