Why Johnson’s Brexit Path Can’t Avoid Irish Border: QuickTake

LONDON (Capital Markets in Africa) – It was the boundary between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland that sank former U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s efforts to engineer an orderly exit from the European Union. Now her successor, Boris Johnson, is bumping up against the same challenge — how to manage a historically fraught border when it becomes the dividing line between the U.K. and the EU. Johnson has made clear his willingness to do what May balked at: crash out of the EU without any divorce deal at all. What that would mean for the Irish border is far from clear.

Why is the Irish border such a problem?
When the U.K. leaves the European Union, the border between Ireland’s north (which is part of the U.K.) and the Irish Republic to the south (which will stay in the EU) will be the only land crossing between the two jurisdictions. The EU has insisted that there be some way to make sure that no goods enter the EU that don’t meet its rigorous customs and regulatory standards once the U.K. is no longer adhering to them. But at the same time, both sides agree that the frontier should remain open, so that people and goods are free to cross back and forth.

Why is it important to keep the border open?
A reintroduction of customs controls would impose delays and costs on cross-border trade that’s worth more than 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) a year. Moreover, a return to checkpoints and watchtowers would bring back bad memories, more than 20 years after a peace agreement ended decades of violence, and could endanger the region’s hard-won peace.

How have they tried to solve this?
The Brexit deal negotiated by former Prime Minister Theresa May included a controversial measure known as the Irish border backstop. It was designed to guarantee that the frontier remained free and invisible no matter what future trade deal the two sides eventually struck. The U.K. dealt with the problem of protecting the EU’s ability to enforce its customs rules by promising to abide by them until another arrangement was reached. That enraged pro-Brexit members of May’s Conservative Party, including members of Parliament who voted to block her deal.

What is Johnson’s view?
He rejected May’s plan. Now that he’s in power, he’s said the backstop must be ripped up and that if the EU refuses he’ll take Britain out of the bloc without a deal. The EU and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar are adamant that any arrangement must include the backstop. That impasse increases the chances of a no-deal Brexit.

What’s Johnson proposing instead?
In his first step toward renegotiating a divorce with the EU, the prime minister wrote on Aug. 20 to European Council President Donald Tusk that he wants to replace the backstop with a “legally binding commitment” not to build infrastructure or carry out checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as long as the bloc promises the same. Johnson didn’t set out what customs arrangements there should be, and acknowledged there “will need to be a degree of confidence” about what would happen if they were not “fully in place” at the end of a transition period.

What would happen in a no-deal Brexit?
Johnson has said that the U.K. won’t erect border posts, effectively daring Ireland and the EU to set up customs infrastructure on the frontier if they insist on checks. But no deal wouldn’t mean no tariffs — trade between the U.K. and the EU would be covered by basic World Trade Organization rules, including a raft of duties.

How would that work?
No one knows. Ireland is in talks with the EU on how tariffs would be collected and what form checks on goods would take, but maintains they won’t occur on or near the border itself. While conceding there will be have to be inspections to combat smuggling, Varadkar has raised the prospect of examining goods at businesses before they are transported, as well as random checks. No agreement with the EU on this question has yet been reached.

Why is this such a headache for Ireland?
The Irish face a dilemma in the event of a no-deal Brexit: Either they agree to reinstate the border or run the risk of being booted out of the European single market. That’s because without border checks, Northern Ireland could be used as a so-called back door into the EU. Brazilian beef, for example, could be shipped to Belfast, moved across the open border and sent seamlessly on to the rest of the EU. Varadkar has described some form of checks as the “price we have to pay” to protect continued Irish membership in the single market.

Could there be a better solution?
Pro-Brexit voices in the U.K. have raised the idea of a high-tech border, using cameras, drones and a system for pre-clearing goods instead of intrusive checkpoints. Few on the EU side think such technology currently exists.

What is the border like now?
It meanders through countryside for some 310 miles (500 kilometers), dividing rivers, fields and even some houses; a change in road signs and accepted currency is pretty much the only indication that a person has moved from one country to another. The island was partitioned in 1921, a division cemented by a peace agreement between the British government and Irish rebels seeking independence. As part of the deal, Northern Ireland, where the population is majority Protestant, remained part of the U.K. with England, Scotland and Wales. The mostly Catholic southern part of the island became the Irish Free State and gained full independence in 1948.

Could a no-deal Brexit hasten a united Ireland?
It’s unlikely anytime soon. Nearly a century after partition, a majority in Northern Ireland want to remain part of the U.K. Still, the fact the possibility is being openly discussed again is testament to the forces unleashed by Brexit. Under a provision of the 1998 peace agreement, a so-called border poll on Irish unification could only take place if the U.K. government considers such a referendum would likely be passed. Varadkar has warned that a no-deal Brexit could eventually spur sentiment toward a united Ireland, an analysis rejected by unionist parties in the region.

What about a possible return of violence?
Customs and security checks would likely hurt the economy on both sides of the border, and perhaps offer a daily reminder of British rule of Northern Ireland. While the province has been at peace for almost two decades, Martin McGuinness, Northern Ireland’s former deputy leader, warned a year before his death in 2017 that the reintroduction of a border following Brexit could aid those who oppose the region’s peace process. Tension has increased after the explosion of a car bomb in January and the killing of a journalist during riots in Derry, also known as Londonderry, in April. Other politicians argue that peace is now so deeply rooted that it would take more than a few border posts to disrupt the island.

Source: Bloomberg Business News